Downside Risk Surrounds U.S. Consumers: Citi Economist Hollenhorst

The video discusses the role of the American consumer in the economy, highlighting strong job and wage growth as positive factors. It examines jobless claims and potential economic risks, noting that current claims are low. The video also explores the impact of volatility on consumer confidence, which has remained stable. Finally, it looks at indicators that could signal a recession, such as declining consumer confidence and equity markets, and the softening of ISM non-manufacturing data.

What is considered the starting point for understanding the strength of the economy?

• Interest rates

• Export levels

• Government spending

• The American consumer

Why might weekly jobless claims not be a major concern if they fluctuate slightly?

• They are only reported monthly

• They are not related to economic health

• They tend to stabilize over time

• They are always high

What has been surprising about recent consumer confidence numbers?

• They have significantly dropped

• They have remained stable

• They have not been reported

• They have been inconsistent

Which of the following is NOT a potential trigger for an economic downturn?

• Weakening of forward-looking indicators

• Decline in equity markets

• Significant drop in consumer confidence

• Increase in ISM non-manufacturing index

What should be closely monitored to assess the risk of a recession?

• Weekly jobless claims

• Government policy changes

• Consumer spending habits

• Forward-looking economic indicators