U.S. Recession 'Years Out,' Evercore ISI Chairman Says

The transcript discusses economic predictions, focusing on factors that could lead to a recession. It highlights the role of the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and its impact on the economy. The speaker notes that while the economy is currently strong, there are signs of a potential slowdown. The discussion includes the importance of monitoring economic indicators like earnings growth and consumer sentiment. The speaker also addresses the possibility of a recession in 2020 and the Fed's approach to managing fiscal policy and inflation.

What is one of the indicators mentioned that could signal a recession is approaching?

• Decrease in consumer spending

• Rise in unemployment rates

• Increase in average hourly earnings to 4%

• Drop in stock market prices

What does the speaker use as evidence of the current economic health?

• High unemployment rates

• Decreasing consumer sentiment

• Ongoing construction in cities

• Decline in stock market

What is the predicted economic growth rate for next year according to the speaker?

• 1 1/2%

• 2 1/4%

• 4%

• 3%

What is a potential consequence of the Federal Reserve's actions as discussed?

• Strengthening of the dollar

• Increase in global trade

• Inverted yield curve

• Rise in oil prices

How does the speaker suggest the Federal Reserve will approach interest rate decisions?

• By being data-dependent

• By focusing solely on employment figures

• By following a strict schedule

• By ignoring inflation rates