Deutsche Bank Economist Says ECB in Very Difficult Spot

The video discusses the challenges in polling and forecasting, particularly in the context of Brexit and other elections. It highlights the European Central Bank's (ECB) position amid political pressures and its decision to extend quantitative easing. The video also examines market reactions and volatility, noting discrepancies between equity and fixed income markets. Despite significant uncertainties, equity markets remain optimistic, contrasting with the cautious stance of bond markets.

What is a reason for the discomfort in forecasting political outcomes, as discussed in the video?

• Overconfidence in market stability

• High confidence in poll predictions

• Fear of being incorrect again

• Lack of historical data

What is the ECB's current stance on its QE program?

• It plans to end it immediately

• It will continue until the end of the year

• It will increase the program

• It will reduce the program by mid-year

What challenge does the ECB face according to the video?

• Pressure to increase the QE program

• Pressure to decrease inflation

• Pressure from Germany to taper off easing

• Pressure to increase interest rates

How did markets react to Brexit and Trump's election according to the video?

• With minimal immediate volatility

• With a strong negative reaction

• With prolonged volatility

• With a strong positive reaction

What is the main mystery in the context of market volatility discussed in the video?

• Why bond markets are optimistic

• Why commodity markets are volatile

• Why equity markets show low volatility

• Why currency markets are stable