Skelly Sees Snapback Amid ‘Noisy’ U.S. Economic Data

The video discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on the Federal Reserve's actions, economic data trends, wage growth, inflation, and capacity constraints. It highlights the Q2 growth rebound, the impact of slow tax refunds on retail data, and the normalization of these trends. The discussion also covers wage growth as a factor in inflation, the role of commodity prices, and the Federal Reserve's tightening measures. The global recovery, driven by Europe and emerging economies, is also examined, along with the implications for U.S. companies.

What was one of the reasons for the unusual economic behavior in the first quarter?

• A slow tax refund season

• A surge in consumer spending

• An increase in oil prices

• A rise in interest rates

How does wage growth contribute to the inflation picture?

• It decreases inflation by increasing productivity

• It has no impact on inflation

• It is one part of the inflation picture

• It reduces the cost of commodities

What is the current state of capacity utilization in the economy?

• It is at full capacity

• It is declining rapidly

• It is around 76-77%

• It is at 50%

What is the Federal Reserve's base case for rate hikes this year?

• No rate hikes

• Three more rate hikes in every quarter

• One rate hike in December

• Two more rate hikes in June and September

How have financial conditions changed despite the Fed's rate hikes?

• They have become more volatile

• They have tightened significantly

• They have remained unchanged

• They have become easier