U.S. Growth Will Slow in 2019, Says Morgan Stanley's Ahya

The transcript discusses the anticipation of divergences due to the Fed's potential pause in its tightening cycle, the temporary halt in US-China tariffs, and its impact on global growth. It highlights China's need to address intellectual property issues and further liberalize its economy. The discussion also covers the Fed's neutral rate and the expected rate hikes, with a focus on the risks to the US economic outlook, including fading fiscal stimulus and ongoing trade tensions.

What is one of the conditions that might lead the Fed to pause its tightening cycle?

• A decrease in global oil prices

• A temporary halt in tariffs between the US and China

• A rise in European interest rates

• An increase in US unemployment rates

What is one of the key adjustments China needs to make to fulfill its trade agreement promises?

• Reduce its GDP growth rate

• Enhance protection of intellectual property

• Decrease its foreign exchange reserves

• Increase tariffs on US goods

What surprising remark did Chair Jerome Powell make regarding the Fed's interest rate?

• The rate is well above the neutral level

• The rate is irrelevant to current economic conditions

• The rate is just below the neutral level

• The rate will not change for the next year

What is a potential risk if the US economy heats up?

• The Fed might increase tariffs on imports

• The Fed might stop all monetary policies

• The Fed might increase interest rates beyond the neutral rate

• The Fed might lower interest rates

What is one reason the risks to the US growth outlook are more to the downside?

• Increasing fiscal stimulus

• Rising business confidence

• Decreasing monetary tightening

• Fading effect of fiscal stimulus