Deutsche Bank Economists See Fed Cutting Rates at Next Four Meetings

The transcript discusses expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 100 basis points through the first quarter of next year due to trade developments and potential recession risks. It compares the US policy rate with global peers and highlights the impact of trade uncertainty on economic indicators. The discussion also covers potential outcomes of trade deals and the risks of further escalation leading to a recession. The impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty on GDP is also analyzed.

What is the expected cumulative rate cut by the Fed through the first quarter of next year?

• 50 basis points

• 75 basis points

• 125 basis points

• 100 basis points

What is the current state of the US labor market according to the transcript?

• Stagnation

• Complete recovery

• Rapid growth

• Slowing down

What is the main factor needed to stabilize US economic growth?

• More government spending

• Increased consumer spending

• Higher interest rates

• Resolution of trade uncertainty

What could happen if trade tensions escalate further?

• Economic boom

• Recession risks become real

• Immediate trade deal

• No impact on the economy

According to the Fed's research, what is the impact of trade uncertainty on GDP?

• No impact

• 100 basis point drag

• 75 basis point drag

• 50 basis point drag