What Investors Say About the Odds of Tax Reform

The transcript discusses the impact of tax cuts on market predictions, highlighting the fluctuating probabilities of individual and corporate tax cuts. It also explores popular political market trends, such as Trump impeachment and Republican control of the House and Senate. Additionally, the role of prediction markets in academic research is examined, with a focus on their setup with universities and data analysis.

What was the initial market prediction for the likelihood of individual and corporate tax cuts passing?

• 90% to 100%

• 10% to 20%

• 70% to 80%

• 50% to 60%

Which of the following was a major topic of trade in the prediction markets related to the current administration?

• Healthcare reform

• Trump impeachment

• Environmental policies

• Education reform

What is the predicted probability of the tax holiday passing before the end of the year?

• 10%

• 50%

• 70%

• 28%

What type of organization is the parent company of the prediction markets?

• Educational institution

• Government agency

• For-profit

• Non-profit

Which institution is mentioned as receiving data from prediction markets for research purposes?

• The United Nations

• NASA

• Harvard University

• The Federal Reserve