JPM's Kelly Says US Inflation to Hit 2% Without Fed's Help

The video discusses the current state of disinflation in America, highlighting the decline in core services inflation and the challenges in forecasting inflation trends. It emphasizes the importance of long-term forecasting for investment strategies, noting the symmetric nature of inflation patterns similar to the 1970s. The discussion predicts a low inflation, slow growth economy, with potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The video also explores investment opportunities, suggesting that while the bond market offers potential gains, equity markets may provide better long-term returns.

What is the main focus of the first section regarding inflation?

• The effect of auto insurance on inflation

• The influence of family spending on inflation

• The role of shelter costs in the CPI

• The impact of new car prices on inflation

How is the pattern of inflation described in the second section?

• As a steady decline

• As unpredictable and erratic

• As symmetric, like the Eiffel Tower

• As a rapid increase

What is the predicted inflation rate by late next year according to the second section?

• 3%

• 2%

• 1%

• 4%

What investment strategy is suggested in the final section?

• Avoiding the bond market entirely

• Short duration and long credit

• Long duration and short credit

• Investing heavily in 30-year treasuries

What is the expected change in the 10-year treasury yield as discussed in the final section?

• Fluctuate between 3% and 5%

• Remain stable at 4%

• Decrease to 3% or 2%

• Increase to 5%