Deep Dive: Odds of Rate Hike, Chemical Industry, Yields

The video discusses the probability of a rate increase at the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting a rise from 17% to 24.2% after a jobs report. Experts like Mohammed Al Arian suggest the odds are underestimated. The Chemical Activity Barometer is introduced as a leading economic indicator, showing a 3% year-over-year increase. The video also examines foreign holdings of U.S. debt, noting a decline that hasn't significantly affected Treasury yields.

What was the initial probability of a rate increase before the jobs report?

• 24.2%

• 50%

• 40%

• 17%

According to Mohammed Al Arian, what is the estimated probability of a Fed rate increase?

• 50%

• 30%

• 24%

• 40-45%

What does the Chemical Activity Barometer Index measure?

• Federal Reserve interest rates

• US chemical industry performance

• Global stock market trends

• US Treasury yields

What is the year-over-year increase in the Chemical Activity Barometer Index?

• 4%

• 3%

• 2%

• 1%

What has been the trend in foreign holdings of U.S. debt?

• Stable

• Decreasing

• Increasing

• Fluctuating