Potash Corp, Agrium in Merger Talks

Jason Minor, a senior chemicals analyst, discusses the potential merger between Agrium and Potash Corp, highlighting the market dynamics and risks involved. The merger is likely an all-share combination due to the volatile nature of the commodity market. The discussion also covers the role of the Canadian cartel, Camp Attacks, and its impact on global markets. The industry faces overcapacity issues, signaling a possible bottom in the market cycle. BHP's recent decisions and past offers for Potash Corp are also examined, reflecting broader industry challenges and opportunities.

What is the primary reason for considering an all-share merger between Agrium and Potash Corp?

• To avoid the risks associated with cash transactions

• To increase the market cap of both companies

• To reduce the number of competitors in the market

• To comply with Canadian government regulations

What role does Camp Attacks play in the Canadian potash market?

• It sets the production quotas for potash companies

• It regulates the prices for Canadian potash producers

• It manages the export licenses for potash

• It provides subsidies to potash producers

How might the merger affect the structure of the potash market?

• It will lead to an increase in the number of producers

• It will result in a single producer dominating the market

• It will eliminate the need for Camp Attacks

• It will reduce the number of producers to two main players

What does the potential merger signal about the chemicals industry?

• An upcoming rise in commodity prices

• The end of a period of decline

• A new entrant in the market

• A shift towards cash-based transactions

What historical event is mentioned in relation to BHP's interest in Potash Corp?

• BHP's acquisition of Agrium

• BHP's offer to buy Potash Corp in 2010

• BHP's development of the Janssen potash mine

• BHP's partnership with Camp Attacks