NatWest Markets' Liu on China's Economy

What is the main risk to short-term growth despite the easing measures?

• Rising unemployment

• Lack of foreign investment

• Lingering COVID policy uncertainties

• High inflation rates

What is the expected impact of the 300 billion railway infrastructure plan?

• Immediate economic recovery

• A massive economic stimulus

• Increase in foreign debt

• Stabilization of growth at a lower level

Why is there limited room for business reinvestment in China?

• High interest rates

• Uncertainty in long-term COVID policies

• Excessive government regulations

• Lack of skilled labor

What is the expected trend for China's trade data post-Shanghai lockdown?

• No change

• Single-digit growth

• Double-digit growth

• Negative growth

What is the expected short-term trend for the yuan?

• Significant appreciation

• Period of consolidation

• Immediate depreciation

• Stable growth