Goldman's Currie: Chances of OPEC Deal Success Are Low

The transcript discusses the potential for an OPEC production cut agreement, highlighting increased probabilities due to Saudi Arabia and Russia's willingness to participate. However, challenges remain due to higher current production levels and the fast cycle nature of shale production. Higher oil prices could incentivize more production, potentially negating the effects of any cuts. The discussion also covers risks associated with production cuts and the incentives for countries like Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria to increase production, complicating efforts to rebalance the market.

What factors have increased the probability of an agreement to cut oil production?

• Increased production from OPEC

• Decreased global oil demand

• Rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and Russia

• New environmental regulations

How might higher oil prices affect shale production?

• Increase production due to more drilling activity

• Lead to a decrease in global oil demand

• Decrease production due to higher costs

• No impact on production levels

What is a potential consequence of a short window of opportunity for oil production cuts?

• Long-term stability in oil prices

• Immediate increase in global oil demand

• Quick response from shale producers

• Permanent reduction in oil reserves

What incentive do countries like Libya and Iraq have in the current oil market environment?

• To decrease their oil production

• To increase their oil production

• To stabilize their oil production

• To invest in renewable energy

Why might some countries be excluded from the oil production cut deal?

• They are increasing production to negotiate better terms

• They have no oil reserves

• They have already reduced their production

• They are experiencing political instability