UBS's Kontopoulos Expects Entire Brexit 'Play' to Play Out

The video discusses the uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic future and the challenges faced by Mark Carney in navigating this situation. It highlights the central bank's passive role, waiting for political decisions. The market's predictions and pricing are analyzed, showing varied estimates based on polls and options. The conclusion suggests that the situation will unfold over time, with no immediate resolution expected.

What is the central bank's role in the current UK exit scenario?

• To remain passive and wait for political outcomes

• To actively influence political decisions

• To decrease interest rates

• To increase interest rates

How does the market view the likelihood of different geopolitical outcomes?

• As irrelevant to market pricing

• As a minor factor in decision-making

• As unpredictable, with varying probabilities

• As a certainty with no room for error

What percentage does the options market assign to a particular outcome?

• 10%

• 50%

• 75%

• 25%

According to specialized polls, what is the estimated probability of a specific outcome?

• 25%

• 15%

• 5%

• 35%

What is the expected timeline for resolving the current situation?

• Resolution over a longer period

• Resolution within a week

• Resolution by the end of the month

• Immediate resolution