What to Expect From the U.S. Economy in 2018

The transcript discusses the current economic cycle's potential to surpass the longest on record, with projections for 2018 indicating growth driven primarily by consumer spending. The consumer's role is emphasized as a key driver of economic growth, supported by a strong labor market and positive economic data. Surprise indicators show that hard data is catching up to soft data, suggesting momentum into 2018. The discussion also touches on the differences between hard and soft data, especially in the context of post-election economic trends. Finally, the potential risks and the importance of consumer spending in sustaining growth are highlighted.

What is the current status of the economic cycle according to the transcript?

• It has just started.

• It is nearing its end.

• It is in decline.

• It is in the middle phase.

What is the expected growth rate for 2018 as mentioned in the transcript?

• 4.0%

• 1.8%

• 3.5%

• 2.6%

Which factor is expected to be the main driver of economic growth in 2018?

• Technological innovation

• Exports

• Consumer spending

• Government spending

What is the relationship between hard data and sentiment indicators as discussed in the transcript?

• Sentiment indicators are irrelevant.

• Hard data is surpassing sentiment indicators.

• Hard data is lagging behind sentiment indicators.

• Hard data is catching up to sentiment indicators.

What is the potential risk mentioned for the end of 2018?

• A decrease in business investment

• A decline in consumer spending

• An increase in unemployment

• A rise in inflation