Fed Dissention as a Hiking Signal for Markets

The transcript discusses the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, considering the economic strength and market expectations. It highlights the market's initial skepticism and eventual acceptance of the Fed's intentions. The impact of nonfarm jobs data and seasonal adjustments on economic predictions is also covered. Additionally, the transcript explores the political implications of the Fed's timing for the rate hike, debating whether a November move would dispel political accusations.

What is the main reason the Fed is considering a rate hike in December?

• The economy is too weak.

• The Fed wants to lower inflation.

• There is a strong economic backdrop.

• The Fed is responding to political pressure.

What is one reason the market might not have believed in a September rate hike?

• High inflation rates.

• Weak ISM reports.

• Strong ISM reports.

• Low unemployment rates.

What factor might affect the nonfarm jobs numbers for September?

• Increased holiday spending.

• A late Labor Day.

• A strong manufacturing sector.

• An early Labor Day.

What is the expected range for hiring numbers in September?

• 100 to 130

• 150 to 180

• 200 to 230

• 250 to 280

Why might the Fed choose not to raise rates in November?

• There is no press conference scheduled.

• They believe they are behind the curve.

• They want to avoid political accusations.

• They have a press conference scheduled.