Weinberg: No Clear Answers to Boost Productivity

The transcript discusses global productivity challenges, the impact of a strong dollar on emerging market currencies, and the potential for trade wars under President Trump's administration. It highlights the elasticity of trade to GDP and the risks associated with protectionism. The conversation also touches on the implications of trade policies and the probability of a US-China trade conflict.

What is the main challenge discussed in relation to global productivity?

• High taxation

• Lack of investment

• Overregulation

• Unclear correlation with business cycles

How has protectionism affected emerging market currencies so far?

• It has caused them to stabilize

• It has significantly weakened them

• It has had little impact

• It has strengthened them

What is the potential risk if protectionism rises?

• Strengthening of EM currencies

• Increased global trade

• Weaker EM currencies

• Higher productivity

What is the estimated probability of a trade war between the US and China?

• 30% to 50%

• 60% to 70%

• 80% to 90%

• 10% to 20%

What is one of the main goals of the border adjustment tax?

• Strengthen the US dollar

• Increase foreign direct investment

• Bring jobs back to the US

• Reduce tariffs