Pound Could Fall 10% in No-Deal Brexit Scenario, Says Nguyen of Commerzbank

The video discusses the impact of Brexit on the pound and market volatility. It highlights the market's relatively relaxed stance despite increased implied volatility and the potential scenarios that could affect the pound, including a second referendum. The speaker suggests that investors with pound exposure should consider hedging their positions due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit, which could lead to a significant depreciation of the pound. Buying implied volatility is recommended as a good risk-return investment.

What has the options market been indicating about the probability of a no-deal Brexit?

• A lower probability than before

• A higher probability than before

• Complete certainty of a deal

• No change in probability

What is one potential positive outcome for the pound discussed in the video?

• Increased tourism to the UK

• A new trade deal with the US

• A second referendum leading to the UK remaining in the EU

• A reduction in interest rates

Why is it challenging to make a precise forecast for the pound?

• Lack of historical data

• Too many potential Brexit scenarios

• Unpredictable weather patterns

• Changes in global oil prices

What investment strategy is suggested for those with pound exposure?

• Buying more stocks

• Hedging their positions

• Investing in real estate

• Selling all assets

What is considered a good risk-return investment at the moment?

• Investing in technology stocks

• Buying gold

• Purchasing government bonds

• Buying implied volatility