Morgan Stanley's EM Head: Trump Can't Get 4% Growth

The video discusses the challenges of achieving a 4% economic growth rate in the US. It highlights two main drivers of growth: labor force expansion and productivity increases. However, demographic changes, such as a slowdown in population growth, pose significant challenges. Even with tax cuts and deregulation, reaching 4% growth is unlikely without substantial immigration or changes in labor force participation. Historically, growth was supported by a higher labor force growth rate, which is now much lower. The best achievable growth rate is projected to be around 2.5% due to these demographic shifts.

What are the two main drivers of economic growth mentioned in the video?

• Reduction in taxes and inflation

• Increase in labor force and productivity

• Increase in government spending and exports

• Technological advancements and foreign investments

Why is it challenging to achieve a 4% growth rate in the US according to the video?

• Due to high inflation rates

• Because of a significant slowdown in population growth

• Because of increased government regulations

• Due to a lack of technological innovation

What was the labor force growth rate during the 1980s and 1990s?

• 3% per year

• 2% per year

• 0.5% per year

• 1.5% per year

What is one potential solution mentioned to boost economic growth?

• Decreasing the participation rate of women

• Increasing the retirement age

• Reducing foreign trade

• Lowering interest rates

What is the expected best growth rate for the US economy over the next few years?

• 4%

• 1.5%

• 3.5%

• 2.5%