Cazenove Capital’s Mui is More Cautious on Macro Economic Outlook

The transcript discusses the potential for a recession due to increased trade tensions, particularly involving the US, China, Mexico, and Europe. It highlights the risks of higher tariffs leading to inflation and weakened economic growth. The conversation also covers market reactions, the unpredictability of trade deals under the Trump administration, and the global economic impact, especially on countries with high trade exposure like China and Mexico.

What is a potential consequence of increased tariffs on Chinese goods?

• Higher inflation and weakened economic growth

• Strengthened economic growth

• Decreased inflation

• Improved global supply chains

How does the current administration's approach affect trade agreements?

• It reduces trade tensions

• It increases their unpredictability

• It guarantees long-term deals

• It makes them more stable

Which region is most likely to be impacted by a trade war with the US?

• Europe

• South America

• Africa

• Asia

What is the estimated impact on the US economy if all tariffs are implemented?

• 0.4% increase

• 0.2% decrease

• 0.1% increase

• 0.6% decrease

Which country might enter a recession due to increased tariffs?

• Canada

• Japan

• India

• Mexico