Convention Polling 'Bounces' Aren't What They Used To Be

The video discusses the concept of convention bumps, which are short-term increases in polling following political conventions. Historically, these bumps were significant, but have decreased in recent years due to factors like back-to-back conventions and changes in media consumption. The 2020 conventions, held virtually due to the pandemic, may see even smaller bumps. The video also predicts potential outcomes for the 2020 elections, considering factors like Joe Biden's VP pick and Donald Trump's current polling position.

What is the historical average percentage point increase in polls for candidates from 1964 to the 2000s?

• 2 to 3 percentage points

• 4 to 5 percentage points

• 8 to 9 percentage points

• 6 to 7 percentage points

Which factor is NOT mentioned as a reason for the reduced impact of convention bumps?

• Back-to-back scheduling of conventions

• Increased voter awareness

• Higher number of candidates

• Later timing of conventions

How has the way we consume news affected the convention bump?

• It has made the bump more unpredictable

• It has decreased the bump due to constant information flow

• It has no effect on the bump

• It has increased the bump due to more coverage

What unique factor could contribute to Joe Biden's polling bounce in 2020?

• His economic policies

• His vice-presidential pick, Kamala Harris

• His debate performances

• His foreign policy stance

Why might Donald Trump have more to gain from a convention bump in 2020?

• He has a new campaign strategy

• He is focusing on foreign policy

• His current standing with voters is low

• He is leading in most polls