Evercore ISI Chairman Sees Trump, Fed Tightening Conflict

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential actions in 2018, including the appointment of new members by President Trump and the likelihood of Kevin Wash becoming the next chairman. It debates the necessity of a monetary PhD for the role and examines market expectations for a March rate hike, influenced by economic data like CPI and PPI. The conversation also touches on the probability needed for a rate hike and personal reflections on serving in Fed roles.

Who is considered a likely candidate for the next Fed chairman according to the discussion?

• Alan Greenspan

• Ben Bernanke

• Kevin Wash

• Janet Yellen

What percentage probability did the market assign to a March rate hike at the time of the discussion?

• 15%

• 70%

• 25%

• 50%

Which economic indicators were mentioned as influencing the probability of a rate hike?

• Unemployment rate and GDP growth

• Housing starts and industrial production

• Consumer confidence and trade balance

• CPI, PPI, and retail sales

What is the desired probability threshold for the Fed to consider a rate hike?

• 30%

• 50%

• 70%

• 90%

What personal reason was given for not wanting to serve as a Fed chairman?

• Lack of interest in public service

• Preference for private sector

• Enjoyment of current work

• Inadequate qualifications