Something Has to Give in Bond, Equity Markets: Vanguard Economist

The video discusses the resilience of the US consumer amidst global uncertainties, noting that consumer spending remains strong despite recent challenges. It highlights a dichotomy between the robust US equity market and a more cautious bond market, suggesting that one of these markets may need to adjust its outlook. The impact of the coronavirus and trade deals on economic growth is also examined, with potential risks and opportunities identified. Finally, the video explores the UK economic outlook, considering the effects of ongoing trade negotiations and potential monetary policy changes.

What is the current expectation regarding a recession in the US?

• A recession is already happening.

• The recession has been completely ruled out.

• A significant recession is expected soon.

• The odds of a recession are not significantly high.

What is the main difference between the US equity market and the bond market as discussed?

• The bond market expects growth, while the equity market is cautious.

• Both markets are overly optimistic about growth.

• The equity market expects growth, while the bond market is more cautious.

• Both expect a significant decline in global growth.

How are the effects of the coronavirus and the phase one trade deal described?

• Both forces are offsetting each other.

• The coronavirus has no impact on the trade deal benefits.

• The trade deal benefits outweigh the coronavirus impact.

• The coronavirus has completely negated the trade deal benefits.

What is the anticipated impact on the UK economy due to ongoing trade negotiations?

• A severe economic downturn is predicted.

• There are crosscurrents with both firming and drags expected.

• Complete economic stability is anticipated.

• A strong economic boom is expected.

What is the expected bias of the Bank of England regarding monetary policy?

• No change in policy is expected.

• A bias towards aggressive rate hikes.

• A bias towards tightening.

• A bias towards easing.