BNP Paribas’s Ji Sees Limited Upside for USD-CNY Trade

The video discusses the FX markets, highlighting the high implied volatility and comparing current market dynamics with the previous year. It examines the impact of trade tensions on FX rates and the differing monetary policies of the PBOC and the Fed. The analysis extends to China's trade performance, noting unchanged exports despite US tariffs, and explores the correlation between service deficits and economic performance.

What was a key difference in the market conditions between this year and last year regarding the PBOC and the Fed?

• The PBOC was tightening while the Fed was loosening.

• The PBOC was loosening while the Fed was tightening.

• Both the PBOC and the Fed were loosening.

• Both the PBOC and the Fed were tightening.

How does the current market sentiment regarding the dollar and yuan differ from last year?

• The market expects the dollar to appreciate significantly.

• The market expects the yuan to depreciate significantly.

• The market expects less dramatic movements compared to last year.

• The market expects the yuan to appreciate significantly.

What role does the FX rate play in trade negotiations according to the transcript?

• It is irrelevant to trade negotiations.

• It is a primary tool for negotiation.

• It has no impact on negotiations.

• It is used as a secondary negotiation tool.

Despite the trade tensions, how have China's exports performed compared to last year?

• They have fluctuated unpredictably.

• They have significantly increased.

• They have significantly decreased.

• They have remained unchanged.

What is a potential impact of tariffs on China's economy as discussed in the transcript?

• No impact on the service account deficit.

• A significant boost in economic performance.

• A major increase in service account deficit.

• A slowdown in the growth of the service account deficit.