Iraqi Clash Can Provide Oil Supply Shock, Says Gammel

The video discusses the potential impact of disruptions in Kurdish oil exports on global oil prices, highlighting the role of OPEC's spare capacity and the dynamics of supply and demand. It explores the short-term and long-term effects on oil prices, considering factors like investment and construction cycle times in the US and globally. The discussion also covers the potential for price changes to trigger supply reactions, particularly in the US, and the challenges of slow supply responses outside the US.

What is the potential impact of removing 550,000 to 600,000 barrels a day from the Kurdish region on the oil market?

• It would decrease OPEC's spare capacity.

• It would have no impact on the market.

• It would increase demand significantly.

• It could cause a supply shock.

What is the expected price level for oil in the next five years according to the discussion?

• $75

• $65

• $55

• $50

What is the primary reason for the expected supply side reaction over the next five years?

• Lack of investment since 2014

• Decrease in US oil production

• Significant investment since 2014

• Increased demand from OPEC countries

How quickly is the US expected to react to changes in oil prices?

• After 2 years

• Within 6-12 months

• Within 1-3 months

• Immediately

What is the typical construction cycle time for oil supply outside the US?

• 1 year

• 3 years

• 5 years

• 10 years