Jobs vs. Brexit: Which is More Important To the Fed?

The transcript discusses the potential impact of Brexit on the Federal Reserve's decisions, highlighting the Fed's awareness of international risks such as the devaluation of the yuan. It explores market expectations for rate hikes, with a focus on whether they will occur in June or later. The discussion also covers the Fed's international considerations, particularly regarding China, and the implications of payroll data and economic indicators on monetary policy. The transcript concludes with an analysis of financial conditions and their influence on the Fed's strategy.

What are the two main risks mentioned in the FOMC meeting notes that could influence the Fed's decisions?

• Inflation and unemployment

• Trade wars and oil prices

• Brexit and devaluation of the yuan

• Interest rates and GDP growth

Why is the Fed eager to normalize monetary policy despite international risks?

• To boost employment

• To stabilize the stock market

• To return to pre-crisis interest rates

• To increase inflation

What is the significance of the June press conference in relation to the Fed's rate hike decision?

• It will announce new economic policies

• It will address the Brexit impact

• It will likely influence the timing of a rate hike

• It will discuss the unemployment rate

Which economic indicator is considered most important by the Fed when deciding on rate hikes?

• Trade balance

• Wages

• GDP growth

• Stock market performance

What is the expected endpoint for the current hiking cycle according to the discussion?

• 4.0%

• 2.9%

• 2.5%

• 3.5%