JPM's Barry Expects Lower Yields, No Imminent Recession

The video discusses the outlook on treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's potential rate hikes, and economic conditions such as rising recession risks and unemployment. It highlights the Fed's possible pause in rate hikes due to slowing growth and persistent inflation. The discussion also covers strategies for treasury duration, considering market pricing and valuation frameworks.

What economic factor is mentioned as a sign of rising recession risk?

• Increasing jobless claims

• Decreasing inflation

• Rising stock market

• Stable interest rates

What is the Federal Reserve expected to do after the May meeting?

• Continue hiking rates

• Pause rate changes

• Cut rates immediately

• Increase inflation target

By when is inflation expected to return to the Fed's target?

• End of this year

• Next spring

• This time next year

• In two years

What is the current stance on extending treasury duration?

• Aggressively extend duration

• Wait for higher yields

• Focus on short-term bonds

• Reduce all treasury holdings

What type of proxies are preferred for being long duration?

• No proxies

• High beta proxies

• Low beta proxies

• Medium beta proxies