Powell: Fed Staff No Longer Forecasting Recession

The speaker discusses the economic outlook, focusing on achieving inflation targets without significant job losses. They highlight the resilience of the economy and note that staff forecasts no longer predict a recession. The importance of having independent staff forecasts alongside FOMC participant forecasts is emphasized, as it brings diverse opinions that enhance decision-making.

What is the speaker's base case scenario regarding inflation?

• Achieving inflation targets with significant job losses

• Achieving inflation targets without major economic downturns

• Inflation rising above target levels

• Inflation remaining stable without any changes

What change did the staff make to their economic forecast?

• They predicted a severe recession

• They forecasted a noticeable slowdown in growth

• They anticipated rapid economic growth

• They expected inflation to rise significantly

How does the speaker describe the relationship between staff forecasts and FOMC participants' forecasts?

• They are merged into a single forecast

• They are independent of each other

• They are identical and dependent

• They are contradictory

What is considered a strength of the forecasting process according to the speaker?

• Having a single unified opinion

• Relying solely on historical data

• Incorporating diverse opinions

• Ignoring participant forecasts

Why is diversity of opinion important in the forecasting process?

• It causes confusion among participants

• It complicates decision-making

• It leads to more informed and better decisions

• It results in slower decision-making