Fed Rate Cut in This Consumer Environment Defies Logic: RBC's Porcelli

The transcript discusses the outlook for the unemployment rate, wage pressures, and inflation in the US. It highlights differing views on inflation trends and examines various measures like the trimmed mean PCE. The conversation also covers monetary policy, emphasizing the challenges of achieving precise inflation targets. The potential impact of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed is debated, considering the current economic conditions and consumer behavior.

What is the expected trend for the unemployment rate by the end of the year?

• It will fluctuate unpredictably.

• It will decrease to around 34-35.

• It will increase significantly.

• It will remain stable.

What is the main argument for those who believe inflation is transitory?

• Volatile components of PCE have increased.

• Non-volatile components of PCE are decreasing.

• Core services inflation is decreasing.

• Volatile components of PCE have drifted lower.

What is the current pace of core services inflation?

• 1%

• 3%

• 2%

• 4%

What is the speaker's stance on a 25 basis point cut?

• They think it will cause immediate imbalance.

• They believe it is unnecessary.

• They are indifferent to it.

• They strongly support it.

What is the consumer's current pace mentioned in the context of monetary policy?

• 5%

• 4%

• 3%

• 2%