ADP: U.S. Added 172,000 Jobs in June

The transcript discusses the impact of the ADP report on market reactions and payroll forecasts, highlighting the inconsistency of previous reports. It analyzes ISM reports, indicating strength in the labor market, and explores the correlation between various indicators and job numbers. The discussion also covers wage growth and inflation trends, noting the Fed's slow acknowledgment of rising core inflation. Finally, it evaluates market risks and expectations for upcoming job numbers, considering potential impacts on bonds and stocks.

What was the forecasted payroll number mentioned in the discussion?

• 200,000

• 170,000

• 150,000

• 250,000

Which survey indicated the highest level in seven months for the non-manufacturing sector?

• Unemployment Claims Report

• ADP Report

• ISM Manufacturing Survey

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey

What is the role of the ADP report according to the discussion?

• An irrelevant indicator for payrolls

• A leading indicator for the next month

• A coincident indicator for the same month

• A lagging indicator for the previous month

What wage growth is expected in the upcoming numbers?

• 4/10 of 1%

• 3/10 of 1%

• 2/10 of 1%

• 1/10 of 1%

What is the potential market impact of a weak payroll number?

• Good for stocks, bad for bonds

• Bad for both stocks and bonds

• Neutral for both stocks and bonds

• Good for bonds, bad for stocks