Haass: Hard to Imagine Fed Moving Before the Election

The transcript discusses the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's decisions, highlighting the role of primary dealers like BNP and Barclays. It examines the Fed's credibility, economic indicators, and the potential political implications of its actions, especially in the context of the upcoming American election. The discussion also touches on the Fed's independence, market reactions, and the philosophical aspects of its decision-making process.

What is the historical accuracy of Fed funds futures in predicting the Fed's decisions?

• They have never been accurate.

• They have been accurate in predicting half of the decisions.

• They have been accurate only in the last decade.

• They have been accurate in predicting every decision.

What is the potential political impact of the Fed's decision not to move rates before the election?

• It could be seen as supporting the Republican Party.

• It could be seen as neutral.

• It could be seen as supporting Hillary Clinton.

• It could be seen as supporting Donald Trump.

How does the Republican right view the Fed's current state?

• As too independent.

• As too politicized.

• As too weak.

• As too powerful.

What is the philosophical debate around the Fed's role in market stability?

• Whether the Fed should be more like a political entity.

• Whether the Fed should maintain market stability.

• Whether the Fed should ignore market expectations.

• Whether the Fed should always surprise the markets.

What is the potential consequence of the Fed surprising the markets?

• It could lead to market stability.

• It could lead to a taper tantrum.

• It could lead to economic growth.

• It could lead to political support.