Could the Fed Surprise on a Rate Hike?

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections, market expectations, and the impact of the Trump election on economic policies. It analyzes economic growth, fiscal policy, and potential risks, highlighting the low recession risk for 2017 but potential challenges in 2018. Inflation expectations and their influence on market dynamics are examined, with a focus on oil prices and consumer expectations. The discussion also covers global financial conditions, including the ECB and BOJ's monetary policies, and their effects on interest rates and the banking sector.

What is the anticipated approach of the Fed regarding interest rate hikes post-Trump election?

• No change in policy

• Immediate increase in rates

• Cautious and reserved approach

• Aggressive rate hikes

How does the speaker view the recession risk for 2017?

• Very low risk of recession

• No risk of recession

• High risk of recession

• Moderate risk of recession

What is the expected trend for core inflation according to the speaker?

• Remain stable at 1.7%

• Decrease to 1%

• Fluctuate unpredictably

• Increase towards 2%

What is the expected impact of ECB and BOJ policies on US Treasury yields?

• Slight increase in yields

• Yields remain stable

• Significant increase in yields

• Yields decrease significantly

What is the speaker's view on the end of negative rates in Germany?

• Negative rates will decrease slightly

• Negative rates will increase

• Negative rates have ended

• Negative rates will continue