EFG's Murray Says December Hike Is a Done Deal

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's anticipated policy decision, with markets expecting a tightening move. It highlights the importance of communication in central bank policy to avoid surprises while maintaining the ability to enact meaningful changes. The relationship between the Fed's balance sheet contraction and its impact on Treasury yields is also explored, noting that expected changes may not significantly affect the market.

What is the probability that futures markets are assigning to the Fed's decision to tighten policy?

• Less than 50%

• Around 70%

• Over 90%

• Exactly 100%

Why is it important for central banks to communicate their policy changes to the market?

• To ensure there are no unexpected surprises

• To confuse the market

• To increase market volatility

• To decrease transparency

What is the estimated impact on the 10-year Treasury yield for every $100 billion change in the Fed's balance sheet?

• 5 basis points

• 20 basis points

• 10 basis points

• 15 basis points

How much is the Fed's balance sheet expected to contract next year?

• $100 billion

• $200 billion

• $300 to $400 billion

• $500 billion

What is the expected upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield due to the Fed's balance sheet contraction?

• 5 to 10 basis points

• 20 to 25 basis points

• 10 to 15 basis points

• 15 to 20 basis points