Thiruvadanthai de Jerome Levy: Los ME enfrentan un desafío de crecimiento

The transcript discusses the current anxiety in emerging markets (EM) like Argentina, Turkey, and South Africa, questioning if these are isolated issues or part of a larger problem. It differentiates the current situation from the 1998 crisis, highlighting unique challenges such as growth issues and domestic credit problems. The discussion covers the impact of capital flows and currency pressures on EM economies, emphasizing the role of inflation and central bank policies. Vulnerable economies like Turkey and India are examined, with a focus on the effects of rising oil prices.

What is the main reason the current EM situation is not considered a conventional crisis like in 1998?

• It lacks the combination of PEG currencies and short-term borrowing issues.

• It is primarily driven by external liabilities.

• It involves a combination of PEG currencies and hot money flows.

• It is caused by a sudden increase in export growth.

What was one of the initial responses of EMs to their growth challenges post-crisis?

• Increasing foreign direct investment.

• Reducing domestic consumption.

• Increasing reliance on export markets.

• Finding domestic sources of credit.

How did the taper tantrum affect emerging markets?

• It resulted in a reduction of foreign investments.

• It highlighted existing economic pressures.

• It caused a significant increase in exports.

• It led to a decrease in domestic credit.

Which country is highlighted as having a significant current account deficit and is vulnerable in the current environment?

• Turkey

• Argentina

• Brazil

• South Africa

How does the rise in oil prices impact net oil-importing EMs like India?

• It reduces their export competitiveness.

• It strengthens their currency.

• It increases their import costs and economic pressure.

• It leads to a surplus in their current account.