Signs of Recession Likely in Beginning of 2020, Bank of Singapore Says

The video discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on the yield curve inversion as a historical recession indicator. It highlights the unique economic conditions due to prolonged QE programs and low term premiums. The discussion includes the Fed's role in managing growth and unemployment, and the divergence of US rates from Europe and Japan. Predictions suggest signs of a recession by late 2019 or early 2020, with rates continuing to rise and Europe and Japan lagging. The video emphasizes the importance of considering multiple indicators beyond the yield curve for economic forecasting.

What is considered a traditional indicator of an upcoming recession?

• Increase in consumer spending

• High inflation rates

• Yield curve inversion

• Stock market crash

Which economic indicator is mentioned as a simple alternative to the yield curve for predicting economic slowdown?

• Retail sales data

• Housing market trends

• Change in payrolls

• Consumer confidence index

What is the current state of unemployment and growth according to the transcript?

• High unemployment and strong growth

• Low unemployment and weak growth

• Low unemployment and strong growth

• High unemployment and weak growth

What does Larry Fink predict about US rates compared to Europe and Japan?

• US rates will decrease significantly

• US rates will diverge significantly from Europe and Japan

• US rates will converge with Europe and Japan

• US rates will remain unchanged

When does the transcript suggest signs of a recession might appear?

• End of 2018

• End of 2019

• Beginning of 2020

• Mid-2021