Turkey Will Probably Need IMF's Help, PIIE's Kirkegaard Says

The transcript discusses Turkey's financial crisis, highlighting the lira's decline and potential IMF involvement. It explores Turkey's economic risks, including foreign debt and low exchange reserves. The impact of US policies, such as tariffs and sanctions, on Turkey's economy is examined. The discussion also touches on global economic risks, including Brexit and trade tensions, emphasizing the unpredictability in the global financial system.

What is one of the main reasons Turkey might need to consider IMF intervention?

• Stable current account deficit

• High foreign exchange reserves

• Rising domestic demand for steel

• A full-blown financial crisis

What could potentially change President Erdogan's stance on seeking international bailouts?

• Decrease in US interest rates

• Increase in foreign exchange reserves

• Improved relations with NATO

• Cascade of domestic defaults

What is a significant challenge for Turkey's central bank in addressing the financial crisis?

• Lack of independence

• Abundance of foreign debt

• High domestic demand for steel

• Stable economic growth

How might US tariffs on steel and aluminum affect Turkey?

• Boost in domestic steel demand

• Protection from NATO

• Increase in foreign investments

• Economic tailspin in construction

What recent development suggests a reduction in global trade tensions?

• Stalled Brexit negotiations

• Breakdown of NAFTA negotiations

• Ceasefire in the US-EU trade war

• Escalation of US-China trade tensions