Conducting a Simulation to Determine Consistency with Given Results

The video tutorial explains how to determine if a model is consistent with given results by using simulation. It uses Garrett's chess performance as an example, where he usually wins 6 out of 9 games but only won 4 in a particular month. The lesson covers forming a hypothesis, designing a simulation using random numbers, and analyzing the results to decide whether to reject or fail to reject the hypothesis. The tutorial emphasizes that evidence can only show consistency with a hypothesis, not acceptance.

What is the main question Garrett's friends are concerned about?

• Garrett's choice of opponents

• Garrett's ability to play more games

• Garrett's unusual performance in a month

• Garrett's interest in chess

What is the first step in determining if a model is consistent with results?

• Designing a simulation

• Analyzing the response variable

• Formulating a hypothesis

• Performing repeated trials

Which of the following is NOT a method to generate random numbers for a simulation?

• Using a random number table

• Using a random number generator on a calculator

• Using a spinner

• Using a fixed sequence of numbers

In the simulation, what do the numbers 1 through 6 represent?

• Wins

• Losses

• Draws

• Errors

How many trials were conducted in the simulation to determine the percentage of 4 or fewer wins?

• 400

• 300

• 200

• 100

What percentage of trials resulted in Garrett winning 4 or fewer games?

• 14%

• 10%

• 20%

• 5%

What conclusion is drawn from the simulation regarding Garrett's performance?

• Garrett's performance is highly unusual

• Garrett's performance is consistent with the hypothesis

• Garrett's performance is worse than expected

• Garrett's performance is better than expected