Pound to Stay Defensive on Brexit in Short-Term, CIBC's Stretch Says

The transcript discusses the political volatility in the UK, particularly around Theresa May's leadership and Brexit. It explores the potential impact on the British pound, predicting a recovery if a hard Brexit is avoided. However, if the UK crashes out of the EU, a significant devaluation of the pound is expected.

What is the main reason for the political risk affecting sterling in the short term?

• International investors' confidence in the UK

• The UK's economic performance

• Theresa May's leadership being questioned

• Theresa May's unification of the Conservative Party

What is the baseline assumption regarding Brexit's impact on sterling?

• Sterling will crash by 20%

• A positive resolution or at least avoiding the worst alternative

• Sterling will remain stable

• A hard Brexit will occur

What is expected to happen to sterling in the middle part of next year according to the speaker?

• It will crash by 20%

• It will remain in the one 30s against the dollar

• It will rise to the one 40s against the dollar

• It will fall to the one 20s against the dollar

What historical event is referenced when discussing the potential crash out scenario?

• The 2008 financial crisis

• The 2016 EU referendum

• The 2012 London Olympics

• The 2010 UK general election

In the event of a crash out scenario, what is the predicted range of sterling's devaluation against the dollar?

• 10 to 15%

• 20 to 25%

• 15 to 20%

• 5 to 10%