Deepblue CIO on Fed's 2019 Path, Bond Yields

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes for 2019, including a shift from a dovish to a hawkish stance. It highlights the Fed's unofficial focus on the S&P 500, driven by President Trump's influence, and its implications for the US economy. The discussion covers the impact of the equity market on GDP growth and the challenges in forecasting the Fed's rate hikes. The transcript concludes with an outlook on the bond market and expectations for US economic data.

What is the main uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's actions for 2019?

• The role of cryptocurrency in the economy

• The impact of global trade policies

• Their dovish stance and potential new mandates

• The influence of European markets

Why is the equity market considered crucial to the US economy?

• It is the primary source of government revenue

• It represents a significant portion of household investment and GDP growth

• It is the main driver of technological innovation

• It is the largest employer in the country

What is the expected impact of a decline in the US equity market?

• Softer GDP growth

• Increased inflation rates

• Stronger currency value

• Higher unemployment rates

What was the 10-year yield trading at during the last interview in October?

• 4.1%

• 5.0%

• 3.2%

• 2.5%

What is the predicted outcome for bond yields in the coming months?

• They will become highly volatile

• They will drastically decrease

• They will remain in a tight range

• They will significantly increase