How Geopolitical Risks Can Impact the 2019 Currency Market

The video discusses the potential downside for the dollar in 2019 amidst rising geopolitical risks, highlighting the eurozone's current account surplus and the Japanese yen as a risk-off currency. It then shifts focus to the Indian rupee, considering the impact of a new RBI governor and political pressures on central bank independence. The discussion extends to emerging markets, emphasizing the need for idiosyncratic analysis rather than viewing them as a basket. Finally, predictions for 2019 include a lower dollar, euro satellite outperformance, and potential gains for the Australian dollar.

What is one of the traditional 'risk-off' currencies mentioned in the context of geopolitical risks?

• Japanese Yen

• Australian Dollar

• Euro

• Indian Rupee

What factor is considered a potential positive influence on the Indian rupee?

• New RBI governor

• Rising oil prices

• High inflation

• Political stability

What is a key concern for the Indian rupee according to the discussion?

• Trade surplus

• Global economic slowdown

• Local political and economic issues

• High interest rates

Which region's central banks are highlighted for potential currency outperformance?

• Scandinavian

• South American

• Middle Eastern

• African

Which currency is mentioned as potentially oversold in the developed space?

• Australian Dollar

• British Pound

• Canadian Dollar

• Swiss Franc