What Is The Big Trade for Treasuries in 2019?

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions, including interest rate decisions and balance sheet runoff. It explores the impact of these actions on financial markets, the role of the Fed in curve flattening, and the potential effects of a government shutdown. The discussion also covers the performance of the dollar and the economic outlook, considering global factors and the Fed's data dependency.

What was the main reason for the rally since the 10-year yields hit 3.25%?

• A rise in inflation rates

• An increase in stock market volatility

• A decrease in Treasury bill issuance

• A rethink of broader fundamentals

What is the most probable scenario if the Fed stops hiking rates?

• The yield curve will flatten further

• The yield curve will re-steepen

• The dollar will depreciate significantly

• The stock market will crash

What challenge does the Fed face due to the government shutdown?

• Decreasing interest rates

• Rising unemployment

• Increased inflation

• Lack of economic data

How has the Fed's tone changed since December?

• It has remained the same

• It has become more optimistic

• It has become more cautious

• It has become more aggressive

What could complicate the Fed's issues if the dollar outperforms?

• Exporting inflation

• Increasing interest rates

• Decreasing unemployment

• Importing deflation