UBS Sees Major European Economic Deceleration in Q4

The video discusses the economic slowdown in Europe, highlighting a major deceleration in Q4. It attributes 75% of the weakness to factors linked to the global trade cycle, with Europe being heavily exposed. The video also examines the role of Mr. Draghi in addressing these challenges. Growth forecasts for 2019 are revised downwards, potentially affecting normalization trajectories. Inflation prospects are discussed, noting a drop in headline inflation due to oil prices, while wages remain stable.

What is the current tracking of the global nowcast model for Europe?

• 0%

• 0.4%

• 1.5%

• 2%

What percentage of the economic weakness in Europe is attributed to global trade cycle variables?

• 75%

• 60%

• 50%

• 80%

What is the assumed growth rate for Europe in 2019 according to the discussed assumptions?

• 2.5%

• 2.0%

• 1.7%

• 1.0%

What is the expected impact of the economic slowdown on the normalization trajectory?

• Accelerate it

• No impact

• Delay it

• Cancel it

What is the current tracking rate of wages in Europe?

• 1.5%

• 2.2%

• 3.0%

• 4.0%