Cyclicals Are Ahead of Themselves, Says CCLA’s Bevan

The video discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting differing views on the potential outcomes and long-term implications. It explores market expectations, potential risks, and the possibility of trade negotiations shifting focus to Europe. The discussion also covers strategies for global growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on quality and secular growth in investments, while expressing skepticism about China's economic data and the general growth outlook.

What are the main motivations for President Xi and President Trump in seeking a trade deal?

• Both leaders want to increase military power.

• President Xi wants a stronger economy, and President Trump wants strong equity markets.

• President Xi wants to expand China's territory, and President Trump wants to reduce taxes.

• Both leaders aim to improve their countries' education systems.

What is the market currently expecting regarding the US-China trade deal?

• The market is unsure and has no expectations.

• The market expects an increase in tariffs on both sides.

• The market anticipates a confirmation of tariff suspension with no additional tariffs.

• The market expects a complete breakdown of negotiations.

What is a potential surprise that the market is not considering?

• A sudden increase in US interest rates.

• Mr. Trump turning his attention to Europe.

• Mr. Trump focusing on trade with Africa.

• A new trade deal with Russia.

What is the suggested investment focus given the concerns about global growth?

• Investing in real estate.

• Buying cyclical stocks.

• Focusing on quality and secular growth.

• Investing heavily in debt.

What is the speaker's view on China's economic data?

• The speaker fully trusts the official numbers.

• The speaker believes China's economy is stronger than reported.

• The speaker is skeptical and thinks China's growth is slower than expected.

• The speaker thinks China's economy is irrelevant to global markets.