JPMorgan’s Chang on Global Growth, U.S. Recession, Brexit, China

The video discusses global economic concerns, focusing on subpar growth in developed and emerging markets, recession risks, and market volatility. It examines the impact of Brexit on European growth, China's fiscal strategies, and the challenges of predicting recessions amid geopolitical uncertainties. Key economic indicators, policy accommodations, and financial conditions are analyzed to understand potential downturns.

What is the current probability of a global recession according to the speaker?

• Low, below 40%

• Moderate, around 50%

• Certain, 100%

• Very high, above 70%

Which market is often seen as the 'Canary in the coal mine' for economic downturns?

• Emerging markets

• Chinese market

• US equity market

• European market

How does Brexit potentially affect European growth?

• No impact at all

• Long-term business spending and investment

• Boosts European growth

• Immediate market impact

What is China's approach to fiscal stimulus as mentioned in the transcript?

• Income tax cuts and stimulating consumption

• Focusing on infrastructure projects

• Reducing government spending

• Increasing export tariffs

Why have economists struggled to predict recessions accurately?

• Lack of data

• Geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions

• Over-reliance on technology

• Too much focus on consumer behavior