40% Chance of 2020 U.S.-Iran Military Conflict: Eurasia CEO

The video discusses various global risks, focusing on US politics, US-China trade tensions, and US-Iran relations. It highlights the potential market impacts of these risks, particularly in oil and financial markets. The discussion also covers falling global interest rates and the possibility of market bubbles. The video concludes with an analysis of US policy changes and the constraints markets impose on policy decisions.

Which risk scenario is considered a red herring in terms of market impact?

• Slowing global growth

• U.S.-China trade tensions

• U.S.-Iran relations

• U.S. politics

What is the estimated probability of a military conflict with Iran in the next year?

• 40%

• 50%

• 30%

• 20%

What is the primary concern if the supply of oil comes under threat?

• Increased oil prices

• Increased oil supply

• Decreased oil demand

• Stable oil markets

What is the current trend in global interest rates?

• Unpredictable

• Rising

• Falling

• Stable

What is the only constraint on the U.S. president's policy actions according to the discussion?

• The markets

• Public opinion

• Congress

• International law