Worry About a Recession in 2020, Not 2019, Says NatWest’s McCormick

The video discusses concerns about a potential recession in the US, noting that while the economy is strong, it is late in the cycle. The Federal Reserve's actions are scrutinized, with market expectations for rate cuts posing a risk. The discussion shifts to the limits of monetary policy and the potential for fiscal stimulus, highlighting the US's large budget deficit. The video concludes by comparing the fiscal and monetary capacities of the US and Europe.

What is the main concern of the Nat West Markets desk regarding the US economy?

• Unemployment rates

• Recession in 2020

• Recession in 2019

• High inflation rates

What is the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's action?

• Maintain current interest rates

• Introduce new monetary policies

• Cut interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points

• Increase interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points

What is a significant limitation of monetary policy according to the discussion?

• It is too aggressive

• It cannot address corporate debt

• It lacks flexibility

• It has limited impact on slowing economies

What fiscal measure is Trump considering that does not require Congress?

• Raising income taxes

• Capital gains tax adjustments

• Introducing a new sales tax

• Increasing corporate taxes

What is the fiscal situation in Europe compared to the US?

• Europe has higher interest rates

• Europe has more fiscal room

• Europe has more monetary room

• Europe has a larger budget deficit