MUFG Bank’s Tan Is Still Very Cautious on Markets

The transcript discusses the potential impact of US-China trade negotiations on markets, with a focus on investor excitement and the possibility of a partial deal. It analyzes Trump's stance on trade deals, speculates on tariff increases, and predicts the likelihood of a trade deal in 2019 or 2020. The discussion also covers the impact of trade tensions on market pricing and trade flows, particularly in Asia.

What is the potential impact of a partial trade deal on Trump's political standing?

• It would strengthen his position.

• It would have no impact.

• It would appear as a concession to China.

• It would guarantee his re-election.

What is the term used to describe a trade deal that is only nominally effective?

• Nominal Agreement

• Partial Deal

• Trade Concession

• DINO (Deal in Name Only)

Why is it challenging to secure a trade deal during a US presidential election year?

• Economic downturns are more common

• Lack of interest from other countries

• Heightened scrutiny and political risk

• Increased political focus on domestic issues

Which markets are considered vulnerable due to the ongoing trade negotiations?

• Real estate markets

• Equity markets

• Currency markets

• Commodity markets

Which countries are benefiting from diverted trade flows due to the trade war?

• India and Thailand

• Indonesia and Philippines

• Japan and South Korea

• Vietnam and Malaysia