UBS’s Haefele Is Underweight Global Equities

The video discusses the ongoing tensions between China and the US, focusing on issues like basketball and tech companies. It explores economic projections, suggesting that announced US tariffs will be implemented, affecting growth. Investment strategies are discussed, with a focus on being underweight in equities globally due to trade tensions. The video considers factors that could lead to optimism, such as changes in US trade policy or leadership. Finally, it analyzes the impact of trade tensions on US companies' earnings, highlighting the role of tax cuts and investor sentiment.

What is the expected outcome of the US-China tensions according to the base case scenario?

• China will impose new tariffs on the US.

• Tariffs announced by the US will be implemented.

• Tensions will significantly increase.

• Tensions will be completely resolved.

Why is the investment strategy underweight in equities globally?

• Due to high growth projections.

• Because of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

• Because of strong performance in emerging markets.

• Due to a stable S&P 500 index.

What could lead to a more optimistic outlook on trade policies?

• An increase in tariffs.

• A change in US leadership after 2020.

• A decrease in global investments.

• A rise in manufacturing output.

How has the trade war affected US companies' earnings?

• It has contributed to a slowing earnings picture.

• It has had no impact on earnings.

• It has led to increased earnings.

• It has resulted in a surge in manufacturing investments.

What is a major concern for markets globally?

• Decreasing tariffs.

• Stable economic growth.

• Uncertainty in global geopolitical issues.

• Certainty in trade policies.