If U.S. Avoids Recession, Yield Curve May Steepen, Says Bank of Singapore’s Nicholson

The video discusses the relationship between fixed income and equity markets, focusing on recent trends in sovereign yields and the potential for growth. It examines the likelihood of a US recession and its impact on yield forecasts, suggesting a possible increase in yields if a recession is avoided. The discussion also covers changes in the yield curve and market indicators like ISM and PMI numbers. Finally, it addresses global trade dynamics and economic uncertainties, including Brexit, and their effects on different sectors.

What is the forecasted 10-year yield in the next 12 months if a US recession is not expected?

• 3.0%

• 2.0%

• 2.3%

• 1.5%

What economic scenario is described as having a 75% probability?

• A rapid economic expansion

• A Goldilocks scenario with gentle growth

• A deflationary period

• A severe recession

What recent change in the yield curve is discussed in the video?

• It has steepened significantly

• It has remained unchanged

• It has uninverted

• It has flattened

Which economic indicator is mentioned as slightly weaker than expected?

• GDP growth rate

• Unemployment rate

• Consumer confidence index

• ISM numbers

What is a major source of uncertainty affecting global trade according to the video?

• Technological advancements

• Political stability in the Middle East

• Brexit

• Climate change