UBS Sees No U.S. Recession, Three Fed Rate Cuts in 2020

The video discusses the potential for a recession in the US, noting that while forecasting is limited to two years, central banks have been able to extend economic cycles by managing inflation. Current challenges include investment uncertainty, which may hinder economic recovery. The S&P earnings outlook is bearish, with potential market corrections expected. The video also covers the impact of Fed rate cuts and tariffs, particularly on manufacturing and retail sectors, highlighting the need for tariff rollbacks to prevent further economic damage.

What factor is allowing central banks to extend the economic cycle in the US?

• Lack of inflation

• High inflation

• Increased fiscal stimulus

• Rising labor costs

What is the expected trend for the S&P index by the end of next year according to the forecast?

• Above current levels

• Below current levels

• Unchanged

• Significantly higher

What is the 'air pocket' in the economic forecast referring to?

• A sudden increase in inflation

• A rise in unemployment

• A temporary economic slowdown

• A surge in investment

Which sector is primarily affected by the September tariffs?

• Retail

• Agriculture

• Technology

• Healthcare

What is the proposed solution to mitigate the impact of the September tariffs?

• Rollback the September tariffs

• Increase tariffs further

• Introduce new tariffs

• Subsidize affected sectors