U.S. Bond Market Needs Growth Shock to Rally: JPM’s Normand

The video discusses the challenges of returning to higher yields, emphasizing that inflation is a key precondition. It explores the potential for bond market rallies, particularly in emerging markets, and highlights the limited scope for such rallies in developed markets. The discussion then shifts to the expected US economic recovery in 2021, driven by vaccine rollout, fiscal stimulus, and Fed easing, predicting a mini boom with above-trend growth.

What is a key precondition for returning to higher yields according to the transcript?

• Sufficient inflation to prompt central bank action

• Increased government spending

• A decrease in unemployment rates

• A rise in consumer confidence

In which markets is there more potential for bond market rallies?

• Developed markets

• Emerging markets

• European markets

• Asian markets

What factors are expected to drive the US economic recovery in 2021?

• Vaccine rollout, fiscal stimulus, and Fed easing

• Decreased government intervention

• Increased exports and imports

• Higher interest rates and reduced inflation

What is the expected growth rate during the 'mini boom' in the US?

• 6-7%

• 1-2%

• 3-4%

• 4-5%

How does the expected recovery in 2021 compare to the growth seen during the initial lockdowns?

• It is expected to be larger

• It is expected to be smaller

• It is expected to be unpredictable

• It is expected to be the same